Exit Polls and Computerized Vote Counts

By Theodore de Macedo Soares. This article is part of the larger report Democracy Lost: A Report on the Fatally Flawed 2016 Democratic Primaries by Election Justice USA. The computerized vote counts in the 2016 Democratic Party Presidential primaries have, in many states, differed widely from the vote totals predicted by the exit polls conducted by Edison Research. These discrepancies were overwhelmingly to Clinton’s benefit.  The vote counts for the Republican Party Presidential primaries; however, with the exception of Continue Reading →

Youthful Voters not the Cause of Discrepancies between Exit Polls and Computer Counts

By Theodore de Macedo Soares. This article is part of the exit poll section included in the report Democracy Lost: A Report on the Fatally Flawed 2016 Democratic Primaries. by Election Justice USA.  Statistical details will soon be included. Nate Cohn, a writer for the New York Times, recently wrote an article theorizing that the reason “why…exit polls so tilted toward Mr. Sanders,” was due to the fact that “young voters are far likelier to complete the exit polls Continue Reading →

Republican Party Detailed Tables. TSE of the 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. The following tables compare exit poll results with the unverified computer vote counts for all the primary states for the exception of New Hampshire and South Carolina.* The comparison of 106 individual exit polls results for the main candidates in the Republican Party primaries (Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, Carson, and Bush) with their actual vote totals allow for the calculation of the total survey error (TSE).  As the completed exit polls are compared to Continue Reading →

Democratic Party Table 1. 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Democratic Party 2016 primaries. This table, Democratic Party Table 1, compares the results of candidate Clinton and candidate Sanders applying the standard margin of error calculations. Table show the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts.  Discrepancies that exceed the margin of error (MOE) of the exit polls are shown in the last column. The MOE applied is the standard formula used when the news media and others report survey Continue Reading →

Republican Party Table 1. 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Republican Party 2016 primaries. This table, Republican Party Table 1, compares candidate Trump’s results with the combined results of the competing candidates applying the standard margin of error calculations. Table show the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts.  Discrepancies that exceed the margin of error (MOE) of the exit polls are shown in the last column. The MOE applied is the standard formula used when the news media and Continue Reading →