2016 Presidential Election Table

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by Theodore de Macedo Soares

According to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research, Clinton won four key battleground states (NC, PA, WI, and FL) in the 2016 Presidential Election that she went on to lose in the computerized vote counts.  With these states Clinton wins the Electoral College with a count of 306 versus 232 for Trump. Clinton also won the national exit poll by 3.2% and won the national vote count by 2.1% or about three million votes.

Exit polls were conducted in 28 states. In 22 states the discrepancies between the exit polls and the vote count favored Trump. In 12 of these states the discrepancies favoring Trump exceeded the margin of error of the state’s exit poll. See Table and its footnotes below.

Readers may find the following answers to questions in the comments section very helpful:

[1] Exit polls (EP) conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN shortly after the closing of state polls and downloaded by TdMS.  Edison Research conducted one national EP and EPs in 28 states. As these first published exit polls are altered/adjusted to conform to the unverified computer vote counts, the discrepancies shown above are adjusted to near zero in the final EPs.

[2] Official 2016 Presidential General Election Results. Federal Election Commission. January 30, 2017. Available at: www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2016/2016presgeresults.pdf and archived HERE.

[3] The margin columns subtracts the Clinton totals from Trump’s.  A Trump win is shown by a positive sign and a Clinton win by a negative sign.

[4] Note that the Margin of Error (MOE) is for the differences between the two candidates (at 95% CI). This MOE is about double the usual MOE for each candidate. MOE calculated according to:  Franklin, C. The ‘Margin of Error’ for Differences in Polls. University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin. October 2002, revised February 2007. Available at:  https://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/MOEFranklin.pdf

Note: The exit poll vote proportions for Clinton and Trump were derived from the gender category (all the other categories would have approximately the same result). Clinton’s proportion of the male vote was multiplied with the total male proportion and added to Clinton’s proportion of the female vote multiplied with the total female vote to arrive at Clinton’s vote share in the state. The same procedure was applied to arrive at Trump’s proportions of the exit poll vote.

Updates:

May 8, 2017: Table updated with the official vote count published by the Federal Election Commission on January 30, 2017. The table is now marked final. Some of the introductory text has been modified in accordance with the official results and table.

November 14, 2016: As requested by a few people attached is the zip file (very large at 5,300KB) containing all the exit polls downloaded from CNN shortly after the polls closed in each state.  If using these files please credit www.tdmsresearch.com  and Theodore de Macedo Soares as the source and most importantly cite the article that shows the results of the exit polls: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

November 17, 2016: The table below was updated to reflect the most current vote counts. Electoral College count updated to include states not previously decided. Michigan results will not be formally decided until the end of November but as it is expected that Trump will win its 16 Electoral College votes it has been noted as a Trump win. Electoral College results calculated with the interactive map at http://www.270towin.com/

COMMENT SECTION FUNCTIONALITY UPDATED ON NOVEMBER 19, 2016.

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292 Comments on "2016 Presidential Election Table"

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Brian Cady
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Thanks for doing this work.

Rebecca Wilson
Guest

Sign the petition demanding an audit of 7 states:
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/810/285/388/

Jack Harwood
Guest

Screw that. Do an audit of the Democratic Primary first. Hillary got what she deserved. She stole the primary, Trump stole the general. Poetic Justice under a system where there is no other justice. She created Trump and Trump ate her lunch. All is fair.

Maureen Gill Ausbrook
Guest
Maureen Gill Ausbrook

That is so ridiculous. I voted for Hillary. Everyone I know voted for Hillary. Sanders people act like they were the only voters out there. When Obama beat Hillary in the ’08 primary, the Hillary people didn’t act like petulant brats and conspiracy theorists. There was NO damn election fraud; it was studied closely. Get over it.

The general with Trump is vastly different. The Russians have been all over it.

Jeh Jones
Guest

Yes, the Hillary people did act like petulant brats in ’08; you have a very, very short (selective) memory.

1. Hillary stole the primary in ’16 with the collaboration of the DNC.
2. Rump stole the general election, with the help of the Russians.
3. Dubya stole the general in ’00 and ’04.

Norah
Guest

Again pathetic. PROVE IT! In fact, the Russians have been proven to have done it, big mouth so shut up. Hillary swamped the old grifter by 4 million votes. HE LOST. The primary wasn’t rigged, bernturds just didn’t like the rules and didn’t want to follow them and that’s on Bernfraud and his minions.

Norah
Guest

That’s because bernbots are ignorant pathetics that believe every lie the old fraud spews, despite all research, and stats to the contrary. They have no ability to understand how gov’t works.

Barbara Druesedow
Guest

Go play in your baskets. You bots cost the election.

mike
Guest

Nah. The DNC running with an already vastly unpopular candidate lost the election. She lost to Trump. TRUMP. That’s pathetic, even with election fraud.

Norah
Guest

Wrong stupid. Her favorables were at 67% before she ran. She did not lose to trump, he cheated so…grow a brain.

Kathy
Guest

Mike. I know Republicans and facts do not mix. Maybe try re reading the above article.

estevev
Guest

Hillary could have easily picked Sanders (or Elizabeth Warren) as her running mate. Instead, John Podesta placed him last on his list of possibles.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/10/18/hacked_john_podesta_email_lists_vp_candidates_by_race.html
The Dunning-Kruger effect is apparently endemic not only to Trump, but also to Clinton AND her supporters.
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/30/idiocracy-now-donald-trump-and-the-dunning-kruger-effect-when-stupid-people-dont-know-they-are-stupid/

Norah
Guest

Ok…so tell us all why picking the back stabbing liar, Sanders was such a fine idea, huh? He’s full of crap. He’s done nothing for 30 years. Give it a rest.

Kelly Gaul
Guest

Hillary Clinton was a very good candidat, and Tim McCaine was a very good choice for VP. What we could have been.

Thom Evans
Guest

Are you serious? Sanders wanted to become president let him run as an Independent. A democrat? Why now. Hillary campaigned for the job her entire life. She deserved it.

estevev
Guest

Ii was Hillary’s “turn”, but the public was in the mood for something else.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/11/the_democrats_ran_hillary_because_it_was_her_turn_bad_move.html
What was the right thing to do?

Gin
Guest

You realize you are linking a russian site right?

Jeh Jones
Guest

You dumb fuck. Slate is not Russian, Boris.

Gin
Guest

I dont know who youre calling a dumb fuck, loser! However, I didnt say Slate was Russian.

Norah
Guest

You are wrong. Nice right wing rag slate, ya got there too. The public was scammed by Russian bots, GOP propaganda, and trump’s publicity stunts like paying people to cheer for him and pretend they are “fans”. Then the Rethugs had Comey interfere, Russian fake news, and Russian hacks, along with rigged states like WI and voter suppression.

Now run along ding dong.

Kevin T
Guest

I agree 100%. Let each candidate stand on their own merits and platforms. Here’s a 3-way election race model done back in May using CNN polling data, but factoring in each candidates popularity with republican, democrat and independent factions. http://bit.ly/sanders-clinton-trump-race

Michael
Guest

One should not vote for someone simply because we feel sorry for them. Her goals do not trump our goals.

nicolas
Guest

clinton forwarded bush’s policies as senator. if that is her deserving it, she should run as a republican

nicolas
Guest

trump also donated to her foundation; obama opposed the recount; and they sabotaged sanders. i’m all for a recount of the general…. too bad most of the dem reps are republican pets and didn’t support it!

Norah
Guest

Go home dimwit….no one sabotaged Slanders. He LOST by 4 million votes! You don’t have any idea what you are even talking about.

James
Guest

agree

Catherine
Guest

Seriously, you’re one of those? Pitiful!

Roz
Guest

Hillary Stole Nothing, jack. So STFU

LAURIE
Guest

Exactly.

Tom Schantz
Guest

Hillary won primaries by a landslide, most of Bernies wins came in undemocratic and easily manipulated caucus states. There was such an outcry in Colorado after Bernie won big in caucuses, with elderly women and working stiffs shut out, that the Coloradans voted this fall to replace csucus with a primary.

Kevin T
Guest

Don’t forget, only 25m voted in the democrat primary, which is not representative of the 120m voters in the presidential election, where all independents are able to vote. Here’s a 3-way election model done comparing the likely outcome of a Clinton, Trump, Sanders race to give you some perspective who was more popular overall. http://bit.ly/sanders-clinton-trump-race

Norah
Guest

Listen clown and listen good. We are not going to allow Republicans and dumb Indep.s like you pick our candidate….do you get that? The Democratic Primary does not say that everyone in America gets to choose their candidate….that would defeat the purpose of the primary, but I see you are too butthurt over Bernie’s loss. Well you can’t win an election without minorities. That’s a fact. Learn facts before posting.

cattnipp
Guest

‘Poetic Justice’ ??having a gang in the Whitehouse, Senate, and House that all agree that fiefdom is too good for ‘the people’ and that we are being lazy to ask to work fewer than 80 hours per week to pay our rent, and then beg for food……. Legislators that put $2200 lunches on their expense account covered by taxpayers…… because they discussed how seniors were draining the economy by collecting the Social Security insurance the government had FORCED us to contribute a percentage of our wages to…. since the first day we worked…. and how Seniors getting $1100 a month as their total income were wasting the countries resources….. and you [think] the same people are going to reward you for not objecting to the terrorism of “other” ……. you dare to smirk and tell us that we DESERVE to be in fear of our neighbor killing us by order of Trump [he has promised his followers for 18 months that he would allow them to play Rwanda against the neighbors they looked down on]

Mahlers5th
Guest

Prove it

Pat fourbes
Guest

Jack you are saying it’s ok that we have a man like trump in office because they ‘both cheated’ ? Our country is in big trouble.

Norah
Guest

Jack is a spiteful know-nothing.

Norah
Guest

See it’s stupid people like you that cause all of the problems and confusion. As I said before, Hillary and Dems and DNC did not “rig” the primary exlax. It was a landslide. She beat that old goat by 4 million votes. Poetic justice would be if something unpleasant happened to that big lying mouth of yours. She created trump? Another moronic know-nothing. Sorry, no, the GOP did so deal with it bernbot.

therese ramos
Guest

Post this everywhere! I don’t know how or I would!

Deborah Geremia
Guest

I demand a vote audit in those seven states!

Alan Hoffman
Guest

It is only 5 days from the election. When it sinks in that in all likelihood a foreign power stole our election, we will take action. Please see the post Hacked at a ParallelWorld.com/news. And sign the petition here:http://www.aparallelworld.com/news/did-a-foreign-power-corrupt-our-election-we-must-know/

Kevin T
Guest

Actually the NSA is yet to provide some critical data on this, commonly called PROOF. All they said was that it is likely some people outside the US could theoretically hack things, but couldn’t say who or the likely effect. In reality, the main people likely doing the stealing are locals who have more access to the technology and systems. This has been going on for years. http://bit.ly/stealing-america

David Samuels
Guest

I was checking CNN, where they don’t have the exit poll vote, per se, but I dove into the other questions in North Carolina (age, party, affiliation, philosophy, etc). Working those numbers seem to imply about a 3-or-so points Trump margin of victory.

Gender, e.g., 46% of the exit poll was male. 39% voted for Clinton, 56% for Trump. The 54% women split 53-45 in Clinton’s favor. That would seem to imply, overall, 50.06% for Trump, 46.56% for Clinton. In North Carolina.

What am I missing?

Thanks!

Phil Evans
Guest
David- I’ve contacted Edison Research and asked for an official statement regarding whether the unadjusted exit polls should fall within the MOE of the official election results. I’ve received call-backs but no answer except that the raw data won’t be available until next year. I have extensively analyzed all NC votes and there’s a few significant facts that you need to know- mainly that Trump won ovewhelmingly 55-41% with votes cast on electon day and that Hillary won 50.4- 47.8 in the early “one-stop” votes. Everyone should know that the way the Democratic Primary was rigged in many states was through the early, mail-in, and absentee votes, where Hillary usually scored double digits higher than her election-day percent- just like in NC General election. Additionally, I’ve extensivelty analyzed the precinct-level data and not only does it not appear Trump cheated- Hillary’s excessive gains in the largest precincts don’t follow the demographical distribution patterns of the others. Also, the same can be said regarding the largest counties, where it appears her gains MIGHT be above the demographical distributions of the cumulatives of the smaller counties. Where did you get the demographical numbers you’ve posted- this might just solve this mystery? I’d… Read more »
Norah
Guest

Go spread your lies somewhere else. Bernard the fraud LOST by 4 million votes, foot….by a landslide so stfu. You don’t know anything that you posted so stop lying.You contacted no one. More lies. Scram you are a fool and a liar.

James
Guest

Exit polls rely on everyone being honest. Do you think everyone answered truthfully? How many people were embarrassed of afraid to admit that they voted Trump over Clinton.

Scott
Guest

Yes! I believe that this is the unaccounted for variable!

Norah
Guest

Wrong. Why do you just run your ignorant mouth about things you have no clue about?? Pathetic.

bj
Guest

According to the latest CNN exit polls (Nov. 15th) in the 4 states you listed, Trump won them all. PA is razor thin 48.43%-48.25%. NC not very close 49.43%-44.95% FL is 47.91%-46.06% and
WI. 48.05%- 45.89%. Within the margin of error except for NC which is a stretch. If you want some good examples of voter fraud look at the Dem. Primaries is the southern states or in California. All of those are obvious. Link for data listed: http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

bj
Guest

Correction: Make that Election Fraud

Jim Petersen
Guest

I’m only interested if you include the Green Party.

Rixar13
Guest

#HillaryforPrison2016 ← √

daniel edwards
Guest

Did you even read the article? Trump rigged the election. Not Hillary. You fucking idiot.

Tanya Kershans
Guest

WE MUST MAKE OUR VOICES HEARD! Tell the Electoral college DO NOT VOTE FOR TRUMP! It is a Constitutional right and the .Duty of the Electoral College. The Founders brought about the Electoral College to Insure No Man Unfit to be President would ever be elected POTUS by the Electoral College. In MY Opinion and the Majority Opinion, since Hillary Clinton has won the Popular Vote by a Very Large Margin,Donald Trump is the Most Unfit person to ever run for POTUS. Pence is even worse, so no hoping Trump will go to prison to save us. https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19?recruiter=28458950&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=copylink

Rebecca Wilson
Guest

Sign the petition demanding an audit of 7 states:
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/810/285/388/

Lauren Nathanson
Guest

The petition says it was started by Verified Voting, but there is no mention of the petition or this issue on their website. Do you know if this petition was started by verifiedvoting.org?

Libbie Gates
Guest

Let’s get this turned around. Donald trump is a crooked dirt bag, sexual predator who has disgraced the American people.

Kevin T
Guest

True, but many voters looked beyond Trumps bigotry and scams. They just wanted a change from selfish establishment politics that Clinton always represented. The democrats sabotaged populist Sanders, leaving just Trump to turn to. Hillary was too arrogant. She proudly mocked the Bernie people she needed later in key states. She instead courted donors, republicans and lobbyists. http://bit.ly/hillary-arrogance And Trump was popular with [angry] white males. But he also beat Hillary with the white women vote! http://bit.ly/trump-white-women-vote

jan
Guest

Name calling and obscenity is not helpful or even appreciated . It doesn’t change anyone’s mind and is not remotely a rational argument or strategy in debating. It just makes you look small.

Dan Wilcox
Guest

maybe Trump supporters weren’t answering polls of any kind (I didn’t and wouldn’t recommend it), including exit polls. Just like with Brexit. When people call you a racist if you support Trump and threaten to kill you and in some cases were beaten badly by Trump haters it has a tendency to stifle responses to polls. Maybe YOU are the idiot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7zEibNcejA

Kris
Guest

LOL..You have the IQ of a hamster. Thanks for making the rest of the country suffer for your ignorance.

Lana
Guest

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Admin: No expletives. No hatred. Not on this website.

Donald
Guest

There is always a jerk in the crowd and that you are

trackback

[…] –Palast affirms the exit poll analyses suggesting “red shift” manipulation by Jonathan Simon and Theodore de Macedo Soares […]

Jim Soper
Guest

Where is the original data?

Obi-jonKenobi
Guest

I’m new to this and not sure how to interpret this data. It appears to me that in the case of North Carolina, exit polls showed a Clinton by +2% but the Reported Vote Count showed Trump by +3.8%. That would be a “swing” of 5.8%. That sounds like a lot. What is considered within the acceptable limit? Doesn’t this big discrepancy indicate fraud?

Daniel Edwards
Guest

Yes. It shows voter fraud on the part of the Republican party, who owns 80% of the voting machines, by the way…

Obi-jonKenobi
Guest

What percent of digression between the exit poll and the final tally is considered suspect? 2%, 3% . . ??

Sara Jane Millard
Guest

Very much so, the UN regards any discrepancy over 2% spread to be signs of a rigged vote.

JKF
Guest

NC requires a paper trail for its voting machines, and most counties have a system where paper ballots are fed into an optical scanning machine. Those ballots are now being counted because Republicans have cried foul about losing the governor’s race.

Voter suppression in certain counties played a major role in Trump’s win in North Carolina. Because of a court decision invalidating NC’s early voting law, decisions were thrown back onto the county boards of elections (each with two Republicans and a Democrat) about how to run early voting. Some counties (Wake, Durham) that made early voting generally available had record turnout. Others, which limited and discouraged early voting (Cumberland, possibly Mecklenburg) had unusally low minority turnout.

It would have been easy to get a sampling error in the exit polls because of geographic discrepancies that aren’t usually significant.

Mary
Guest

Hi, Can you please provide the primary source for this data? I cannot find in CNN exit polls where it shows that Clinton won Pa by 4.4%, for instance. Thank you!

Susan
Guest

Okay, so can anything be done about it? Expose it to all?

Media was too busy talking about f’ing emails anyway.

Dori
Guest

There was election fraud in Florida in 2000 with the suppression of black voters. I wondered then why the democrats didn’t raise holy hell. I came to the conclusion that it’s because both sides cheat. They will absolutely not touch this, because too many people would end up in prison. That’s my take on it.

Kevin T
Guest

That’s exactly it. Because both sides have been doing it for decades. No one will ever be prosecuted, since neither side, or the mainstream media, will ever admit it goes on. The charade must continue.

Rebecca Wilson
Guest

One thing that can be done is to demand a post-election audit of the paper ballots in key states.
Sign the petition: http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/810/285/388/

Ja
Guest

Welcome to the party, Hillary supporters.

Andrew O. Jackson
Guest
The science of statistical analysis led the revolution into modern agriculture in the study of seed test plots and the revolution into modern manufacturing in the development of machine capability. If the statistical results were ignored then as they are in today’s polling results, modern agriculture and manufacturing would not exist. To ignore the science of these results is equivalent to ignoring climate change and its science. As we honor the Veterans who gave their lives for our democracy, we dishonor them with our apathy. Our nation has suffered a coup d’état of third world proportions. Yet we as a nation cower to those who too readily speak of the Constitution and the right to vote while actualizing fraud and contempt for these instruments of democracy. Has our nation become so blind, deaf, and dumb that it will just acquiesce to today’s demigods of power and corruption? Have we become a nation so ignorant of truth and reason that we placidly subjugate ourselves and our nation to people who have no interest in democracy but for how it can be manipulated to serve as a means to their own ends? The science and truth of these exit polls have brought… Read more »
Ellen Silver
Guest

Thank you so much for this information. What can we do? Everyone deluge email/call/protest Obama to look into it? Change.org petition to Obama? Getting it in main stream media? I think we actually have some republicans, media, etc. to help, no one who’s using their brain wants reactive Trump to be president and have his hand near the nuclear buttons. I believe this info could change things. (From moment one 11/8 after Trump “chosen” I wondered why no one talking about election fraud/rigging).

Thank you!!!

Rebecca Wilson
Guest

Sign the petition demanding an audit of 7 states: http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/810/285/388/

Sara Jane Millard
Guest

I sent this to every media outlet I thought was worth it. I tweeted this to Clinton, Podesta Bernie etc..
Please do the same.
Put this on every group you belong to, and all the Election fraud pages.

Dondep
Guest
The exit polls were done by the usual NEP, correct? The same people that were the basis of Charnin’s analysis showing Team Hillary stole the glass slipper from Bernie beginning in Iowa then Massachusetts, etc? Then when it became public knowledge that those exit polls were being overturned, they stopped using them, right? So while they stayed out of sight, they were reprogrammed to make sure they confirmed to the rigged polls that had been oversampled, which is one big reason that satanist was overconfident all year and couldn’t bring herself to concede til the next day. Stop The Steal organized an exit-polling operation that indicates Trump actually won 5 MORE states than he was officially recognized for, and they were scrupulous in their neutrality despite the tirades against them coming from pro-Hillary forces. The ONLY way we can assure transparent elections in future is to get rid of electronic voting machines. Bev Harris is the best in the business; you ppl that can’t believe Hillary actually lost should read her site at Black Box voting (not sure of the URL offhand).I know firsthand that nary a single Democrat in my town voted for Hillary, who is probably the most… Read more »
Phil Evans
Guest

Do you have a link to the Steal exit polling results?

Ed
Guest
1. Calculating MOE at 95% CI seems extremely strict. I don’t know if I’ve ever personally seen anything more than 90% used for corporate decision making, and some mature clients even use 80%. At the 90% CI level are they still outside MOE? 2. MOE applies only to sampling error, correct? Isn’t there all kinds of other error, I’m thinking non-response error (do the exit polls show how many people refused to do the survey when asked?). What is the non-response error, is it higher in swing states, and was any effort done to follow up with non-responders or what do we know about non-responders in exist surveys? 3. There is lots of buzz about many people that voted for Trump not wanting others to know about it, given the angry backlash among friends, etc, and perhaps even their own internal angst for voting for the man (but, perhaps feeling a need to vote for him because of singe issue abortion, feeling pressured to vote for him from their evangelical church). Given this, is there a higher propensity in this particular election for non-responders to be more likely to be Trump voters, and/or to false report on exit surveys? Thanks…
Sister Unity
Guest

Please. Trump supporters shy of vocalizing their support? Are you kidding me with this?? It’s their very hallmark! No.

Hanna
Guest

im curious as to what can be done with this and do you forward it to any election officials in those states so it can be investigated ? I mean whats the point of sharing this with us if you arent going to do anything with the clear truth of fraud ?
This is a pretty big deal , we are looking at a leader who’s practices runs parallel with Hitler
Millions of marginalized communities are at risk right now ,, and if there is a clear path that can show that these things need to be investigated then it should also be your responsibility to forward it to the proper authorities in the GOP and DEM parties ,,

Norman McIlwain
Guest

Shy Trump supporters not wanting to admit to voting for him, given adverse coverage can be counterbalanced by shy Hillary supporters not wanting to admit to voting for her because of pressure from spouse or church or community, etc. advocating strongly for Trump.

There was also plenty of negative comment about Clinton, so there should be very little discrepancy to the accuracy of exit polls, as found elsewhere in the world.

Main news agencies are ignoring this argument. – Norm

Luther
Guest

Who xxxxxx is afraid to vote for Hillary? Church or community are you kidding me? Trump supporters are called Racist by everybody constantly, the fear of being exposed as a Trump supporter is much greater, and for Hillary it doesn’t exist.

Admin: No expletives.

Norm
Guest

Wives of Trump voters for a start. Anyone intimidated by expletive bullying invective for another.

Joe
Guest

Trump didn’t steal anything. I agree that machines were built for fraud and does exist but it wasn’t trump. I’m not sure what the author Means when they say they adjusted this for computer data but guy check shoots off red flags. This election wasn’t clinton and democrats vs trump and republicans. It was clinton and democrats and republicans vs trump. The republican big wigs and funders backed Hillary.

Im very experienced in vote fraud and I can tell you that bush stole 2000,2004 and Hillary stole the primaries in several states like California from Bernie. So she wouldn’t try against trump? Trump had no political pull snd contacts and he couldn’t rig the vote if he wanted. You do know the bush fam supported Hillary right? Look it up. Review bev Harris she was the anti bush crusader and stated that Hillary did try to rig this election just not by enough. I don’t think Obama stole anything but he didn’t fight to fix the systems either…

BGM
Guest

You say you are experienced in voter fraud. That would be individual voters and fraudulent ballots. This article is about election fraud where the discrepancy comes from the officials counting the votes.

Jim
Guest

Republicans rigged the primaries in favor of Hillary because they would rather run against her than Bernie. Her disapproval ratings are very high. They rigged the presidential election in favor of Trump and key Senate races (e.g., Wisconsin) so they could take control of the White House, Senate, House, and Supreme Court.
Trump called the election rigged to sucker the Democrats into making big public statements about how it couldn’t be rigged, and then when the rigging comes in favoring Trump, they can’t say a word.
We have just witnessed a very sophisticated subversion of democracy – a quiet coup d’etat.

Hanna
Guest

There were leaks coming out from dark web that computerized voter machines could be hacked and tampered ,,, We are talking about 4 states,,, it would have been a small operation and easily done . He bragged about his relationship with Putin, and The foreign Minister of Russia came out and said they had been in contact with the campaign ,,, You’re daft if you dont think this election was rigged .. MAybe not directly by Trump himself ,, but it would have certainly been possible for those who wanted him in power to do so … But I personally believe he knew and his nefarious public claims of her “rigging” if he loses was him bragging about rigging the election.. its called projection..
I just want to know how the info should go to , or what can be done if any

lee
Guest

Where is Massachusetts?

Kevin
Guest

Thanks for the information!

Do you have the raw data that you used to produce the image in the 2016 Presidential Election Table (chart)?

Mary
Guest

Who fills out the exit polls? Is it volunteer-based? Are the respondents randomly selected?

Linda M
Guest

I wish there could be a Revote and get A Beloved Person in for the People as President. You Better Believe their will be Great Change in America as we Know it. I didn’t vote for him and I will Never Respect him Ever. I feel sorry for all of the up and coming Children who are going to have to Endure Trump and His Basket Hideous Demand’s, all Because People couldn’t get Past President Obama and Hillary Clinton. They aren’t looking so bad now are they.

Donna Knipp
Guest
Mr. Soares, I have a couple of questions for you. I’m a business journalist in New York, but I’m not reaching out to you on behalf of any news organization. I’m just asking as a concerned citizen. First, let me say I’m with you in spirit. I’m asking these questions only to get a better understanding of your work and to get an idea of how compelling this story might be to a broader audience. Re: the exit poll data — I went to the Edison Research website. They don’t publish a state-by-state list of the winner. Instead, they publish data on voter characteristics — gender, ethnicity, age, etc. You say in your “about” section that you used the “gender” results to arrive at an overall winner. I assume that means you used the percentages of men and women who voted for HRC and Trump to get an overall figure of how many votes each one got. I understand using the gender category, since there can only be two genders, and everyone has to be one the other — theoretically, the gender number should be all-inclusive. But how do you know that the gender number wasn’t adjusted? Edison says that… Read more »
David Pakman
Guest

A number of my viewers have sent me this data and I’m finding it compelling. I am considering doing a story on this during the week. If people have more info that would be relevant to understanding and interpreting the data please send it through the contact form at davidpakman.com

Buckets
Guest

Theodore de Macedo Soares,
When will you be uploading the raw source data? I’d like to share this but am reluctant to do so without verifiable origination. Are you able to be more specific than “soon”?

Maureen Gill Ausbrook
Guest
Maureen Gill Ausbrook
Hanna
Guest

Im sorry, but I will still like an answer in regards to what can legally be done about this , who can it be submitted to for investigation ?

Ariaden
Guest

Diane Feinstein Democratic Senator from California is Co-chair of the Intelligence Committee might be one person. Any democrat in the Senate for that matter. Barbara Boxer is a mover and shaker. She would fight to her death.

Ariadne Green
Guest

Diane Feinstein Democratic Senator from California is Co-chair of the Intelligence Committee might be one person. Any democrat in the Senate for that matter. Barbara Boxer is a mover and shaker. She would fight to her death.

Lora Chamberlain
Guest

In the Constitution Congress is the last last arbiter regarding election fraud – A challenge regarding a particular state electors has to come from the House (so getting your evidence to your Democratic US Reps will be very important) and then the challenge must be signed by 1 Senator- then there is a debate in Congress – and then both chambers get to vote up or down on accepting the challenge to the electors of that particular state. Congress laid down on its job of determining the validity of the elections in 2000 – the challenge to the FL electors brought in by the House Black Caucus was unsigned by any Senator (Gore called them all up and asked them to stand down – shithead!) and in 2004 when the challenge to the Ohio electors, again brought in by the House Black Caucus, was signed by Sen. Barbara Boxer, and a 3 hour debate about the validity of our elections occurred but then none of the other Democratic Senators voted to accept the challenge (shitheads!)

Marko
Guest

The Russians , the Republicans , everyone has their pet suspect as to who rigged the machines so that Trump would win. Ask yourself who had the strongest motive and you’ll have the culprit.

It seems pretty clear to me : Bernie Sanders rigged the election for Trump. Sweet revenge.

Sheena
Guest

Haha, hadn’t thought of him, but who knows!

Alexis Edelstein
Guest

were mail in ballots and early voting taken into consideration? exit polling was most likely only done during election day.

heather
Guest

Comparisons to previous elections?

Coach Feratu
Guest

Interesting article. Can early voting and absentee ballots account for some of the discrepancies between the exit polls and the election results?

The NY Times reported that 22 million early votes were cast by October 28th. While Penn. restricts early voting , North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida all permit early voting.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/31/us/elections/earlyvoters.html?_r=0

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[…] Evidence of “red shift” as vote totals and exit polls diverge in several states, suggesting possible tampering with vote tallies (or widespread lying by voters in exit polls).  http://codered2014.com/possible-election-rigging-seen-exit-polls/   These discrepancies are also noted here:  http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/ […]

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[…] Integrity blogger Theodore de Macedo Soares drew attention to the bizarre discrepancy between computer counted official vote counts and exit […]

Frank Furillo
Guest

Election Fraud exists, but it is not being perpetrated by one party against the other. That is the bait and switch. The outcome of our recent elections, always favors the military. The CIA would be very happy with a Trump presidency. Shadow government.

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[…] Unadjusted exit polls: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/ […]

Moshe
Guest

There are two things that I don’t understand about the integrity of the exit polls:

1. I understand that in order for polls to be accurate the polling sample needs to be random. Exit polls are not random. Whoever wants to, fills out a form after voting. Maybe Trump voters were less interested in filling out the exit poll questionnaires than Clinton voters. In any case, since the sample is not random, how can it be considered accurate?

2. The real vote in New York favored Clinton by more than the margin of error. Does this indicate possible election fraud in N.Y. in Clinton’s favor?

Thank you in advance.

Moshe
Guest

I want to add that regardless as to whether this specific presidential election actually had election fraud or not, I wholeheartedly agree that the election system should not rely on computer software blindly. Every step of the counting system should be observable. The current situation is insane.

Donna Knipp
Guest

Theodore, I’m going to try to write an article about these results. How do you describe yourself — are you an “election activist”? Do you have any relevant training, maybe in mathematics or statistics? And if you don’t mind me asking, how old are you and what is your profession?

thanks. If the article gets published, I’ll let you know.

PB
Guest

Missouri is actually the most suspicious, imo.
There the discrepancy and the discrepancy/MOE, were greatest.
As a clear majority Trump state, people probably were not embarrassed to affirm their support for him, as was my first thought.
It’s a large state, good for stats.

Larry A Summers
Guest

PLEASE BREAK THIS DOWN BY COUNTY IN THIS 4 STATES, AND THEN CHECK IF THE DIFFERENCE HAS A CORRELATION TO VOTING MACHINE TYPE USED. It could be that this difference was due to voting machine hacking. It could also be due to people being embarrassed that they voted for Trump, so they either lied to the exit poll, or avoided the pollster.

Larry A Summers
Guest
Bernie Ellis, MA, MPH
Guest
Bernie Ellis, MA, MPH

The adjusted national exit poll states that 29% of Hispanics voted for Trump, a statistic that La Raza disputes aggressively. Their own polling firm survey put Trump support among Hispanics at 18%. Can you provide the unadjusted national exit poll estimate of Hispanic votes for Trump? Thank you in advance and thank you for your efforts to save this dying democratic republic.

Bernie Ellis, MA, MPH https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_X-e0F96bTA

Edward Chu
Guest

Something that jumps out at me, in 5 of the states that have greater deviation between exit polls and vote counts, New Jersey, Missouri, Utah, Maine, South Carolina, the winner didn’t change. If this is due to deliberate action, then why is it in states that matter less than the 4 swing states shown? I agree that that deviation in 23 of the 28 states favor Trump, and a more random distribution would be closer to 14. Not sure what to make of this yet.

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[…] to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research and reported by TDMS Research show that in North Carolina, there was a 5.8 point discrepancy in favor of Donald Trump, which […]

Niels
Guest

Nice theory man too bad your numbers are made up. I checked the CNN exit polls for you http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/north-carolina/president DJT got 56% of the male vote and 45% of the female vote. Clinton got 38% of the male vote and 52% of the female vote. Men were 46% of all voters and women were 54% of all voters. This means Trump got 56%*46%+45%*54%=50% this happens to be the actual result btw. This also means Clinton got 45.6% of the votes pretty close to the actual result.

Your exit poll numbers are made up and are thus spreading misinformation. I claim therefore that you are in part responsible for the riots going on across the USA and therefore also partialy responsible for the resulting damages.

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[…] the results as reported by electronic voting tabulation systems (which, once again, fail to match reported pre-election or Exit Polling results), before a look at whether new restrictions on voting […]

Lindsay V
Guest

I like your spreadsheet better the one at http://codered2014.com/blog/ in one important way, you include the “discrepancy greater than EP MOE” column, but there is something confusing that will cause the lay people problems in your spreadsheet.
In all but one of the highlighted states the “margin of discrepancy in favor of Trump” column the difference are off by .1%. Ror instance, North Carolina, you show EP margin for Trump -2.0% and margin Trump in vote count as +3.8% so the discrepencies column should show 5.8% but instead shows 5.9%, which will confuse people. I assume this is because of spreadsheet not showing full internal precision and showing only rounded amount?

Teresa Hommel
Guest

Dear Mr. Soares and Ms Sara Jane Millard

I am writing an article, and wonder if you could provide two links and specific page numbers:

(1)
To the USAID 2015 document and the specific page number that specifies that “[a] discrepancy between the votes reported by voters and official results may suggest that results have been manipulated.”
I located the DRG User’s Guide 12.4.2015 but could not find that sentence.

Also Ms Millard said above that
” the UN regards any discrepancy over 2% spread to be signs of a rigged vote.”

I would be very grateful for your help,

Joseph
Guest

First of all, an exit poll is just that, a poll. I think everyone can agree by now that all the polls had Hillary winning by a substantial margin with only the LATimes poll remotely close to the actual outcome. This is the most recent anecdotal evidence that polls are not hard evidence of the reality of the public mood. Switching back to exit polls where a person is simply asked who they voted for is not even remotely close to being a valid, reliable method to make the determination the author is. Quite simply, anyone whether it’s a telephone poll/online poll/exit poll can give an opposite answer to their true beliefs. I know many individuals that when polled for Trump told them they supported Clinton. It was not only a “troll” answer but with how people have reacted since the election, before the election, many Trump supporters did not feel comfortable openly supporting their candidate.

Dave
Guest

I’m trying to recreate your table using your data. It looks like you took the gender percentages from the exit polls and applied them to the number of male and female registered voters in the state according to 2010 census data. Am I right?

Norm
Guest
North Carolina Exit Polls Comparison (chosen for example) If anyone cares to do the maths to compare the exit polls published by CNN near to the close with those published later, you will notice considerable discrepancies that cannot mathematically be explained. The later publication conforms to the published vote count. But this is impossible. The 330 additional respondents included in the later poll figures cannot be reconciled with the figures and percentages published earlier. Below is a summary: Donald Trump (i) Exit poll Nov.8, at 7.19 p.m., ET = 3967 respondents % of total vote for Trump in poll = 46.51% % of total vote for Clinton in poll = 48.55% (ii) CNN final total = 4297 (updated 2:56 pm ET, Nov. 15) % of total vote for Trump in poll = 50.06% % of total vote for Clinton in poll = 46.57% ONLY 330 additional responders were added to the list: 152 male and 178 female But, the poll percentages increase the male respondents for Trump by 140, while male for Clinton increase by 23. This is impossible. The maths do not add up. Only 152 extra male respondents were added, according to the published data. Also, increase in… Read more »
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[…] valgdagsmålinger utført av Edison Research og rapportert av TDMS Research, var det et 5,8 poeng avvik i favør av Donald Trump i Nord-Carolina, nok til å ha gitt ham […]

Andrew Graham
Guest

very interesting reading, would love to keep up on this.

Justice4all
Guest

Anything from CNN is automatically known to be fake, fraudulent for Clinton. CNN had to fake exit polls to try to match their voter/election fraud rigging.

Justice4all
Guest

They easily rigged the exit polls in the same way they rigged the pre-election polls and the voting machines. They had to, to try to match everything so they wouldn’t be caught. Only thing they didn’t plan on was the YUGE monster vote of President Elect Trump. Kelly Ann Conway’s internal polls showed the truth, that he was winning.

Skeptical
Guest

The hard thing about rendering a conclusion that this is election fraud as opposed to exit poll bias is that it fails to explain why there was such big discrepancies in very blue and red non-swing states, such as Utah and New Jersey. and even if this could be a red herring pincluded by the most evil of genius hackers, why they would gamble on not overcounting as much in states like MI and MN? It seems like the best plan would be to make any overcounting compared to exit polls appear similar to past elections, except that your hacking program would take a few states and skew them slightly if it looked like the result would be close. The way the states stacked up, particularly MN and MI, it doesn’t appear to be the case

Skeptical
Guest

In other word, with the risk of getting caught perhaps war (assuming the hacking was by a nation state) or criminal prosecution, your investment of resources would dictate that you included enough swing states so that you had some margin of error. An election-fraud theory does not take this into account, while employing a post-hoc analysis from the already-known results of which states ended up swinging the election

Marionumber1
Guest

Doing well in the popular vote is important too. If Trump won electorally, but got massively blown out in the popular vote, Hillary would have more grounds to challenge the election. Keeping the popular vote as close as possible eliminates that concern. So it becomes necessary to steal votes in non-swing states too.

john Draper
Guest

Popular vote is meaningless in a Presidential election, it’s the electoral vote that matters and unfortunately it has become a mere formality and not what the framers intended.

Marionumber1
Guest

I know popular vote is technically meaningless. What I’m saying is that if Hillary had a gigantic popular vote lead above Donald Trump, public opinion would be more on her side if she decided to challenge the election in a couple key swing states that were close. That’s less likely to be the case if the popular vote isn’t so massively tilted in her favor. It’s a matter of optics.

Greg
Guest

Is it all possible to get the raw data from Edison, CNN or the like?

Charles
Guest

In the past, Edison has been extremely slippery. I can’t speak about the present. But I think we should be asking why they get paid for doing such a bad job of predicting the outcome. Maybe if they were forced to open their books to an audit, we might get an answer as to whether there is fraud or not.

krizarro
Guest

It would cost $70K to do it and there’s a gofundme campaign to do just that. https://www.gofundme.com/lets-get-the-exit-poll-results

Greg
Guest

Of course, what bugs me the most, is that much of the uncertainty could be dealt with by doing a hand recount of the ballots. Does anyone have any idea why neither of the campaigns has asked for this?

Norm
Guest

“Does anyone have any idea why neither of the campaigns has asked for this?” – Well, I suppose if the final versions of the exit polls do not conflict with the count, people will say, “Oh well, the pre-election polls got it wrong and can’t be trusted – like Brexit.” – Except, this was not Brexit and the count of votes for Brexit was by hand and open to scrutiny.

I doubt anyone expected someone to take screenshots of the penultimate exit polls like Theodore. Surely its time for a Woodward and Bernstein to set to work.

Greg
Guest

Actually, similar screenshots were done in the last election (by someone else, I believe). Further, the campaigns must be well aware of the situation, these people know what’s going on, they’re pros at this stuff. We don’t need a Woodward and Bernstein, just a manual recount. Even if it’s just a sampling of the precincts. The problem may be that manual recounts are not possible in some places. I think they’re possible in Wisconsin, Michigan, N. Carolina and Ohio, but I don’t think they are in Florida and Pennsylvania. Since only N. Carolina and Wisconsin went Clinton in the exit polls, it may be that it’s not enough. Does anyone know what sort of audit system exists in Florida and Pennsylvania?

Frank Maraschino
Guest

Under Pennsylvania law a recount is mandated if a candidate loses by a margin of half-a-percentage point or less. Candidates can’t personally request a recount if they lose by a greater margin, though they could go to court to challenge the election’s outcome. Three voters with $50, however, could file a petition for a recount in each precinct. PA has more than 9,000 precincts.

Since over 60% of PA voters cast ballots on paperless DRE machines, however, it’s not entirely clear how well an audit or recount would work. There’s no paper trail with which to compare the voting machine’s flash memory.

Dave
Guest

The first published exit polls used for this table were last updated at 7:19 pm ET on Election Day. At that time the polls were closed in only seven states. It would be nearly six hours before the polls closed throughout the country. These first published exit polls were also incomplete.

When you use the exit polls currently published by CNN that were last updated at 2:56 pm ET, Nov. 15, Trump wins North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida.

exit polls as reported by CNN, updated 7:19 pm ET, Nov. 8
North Carolina – Clinton 48.6%, Trump 46.5%
Pennsylvania – Clinton 50.5%, Trump 46.1%
Wisconsin – Clinton 48.2%, Trump 44.3%
Florida – Clinton 47.77%, Trump 46.4%

exit polls as reported by CNN, updated 2:56 pm ET, Nov. 15
North Carolina – Clinton 45.6%, Trump 50.1%
Pennsylvania – Clinton 48.0%, Trump 49.1%
Wisconsin – Clinton 46.6%, Trump 48.4%
Florida – Clinton 46.7%, Trump 48.8%

Will you please update the table to reflect the most current exit polls, just as you updated it on November 17th to the reflect the most current vote counts?

Thank you.

Researcher
Guest

Author has explained that several times in the comments. Those final numbers you posted were adjusted to match the vote counts. Original ones are raw.

Israel
Guest

That explanation is complete nonsense. Those numbers were clearly not the final totals as Dave pointed out. Look at the time stamps.

Jimmy Murphy
Guest

For all you telling us how Bernie could have won can you tell me how he couldn’t get CA Prop 61 passed in a solid BLUE state? I voted for Prop 61 but it was being fought by Merck & Pfizer ads. So supporters got Bernie on board with ads and rallies and it still lost in blue California.

Dana
Guest

I believe the popular theory isn’t that it wasn’t Bernie or the Democrats that tampered with these election results, but Russia. If Russia does’t have anything to gain with CA Prop 61 passing they wouldn’t have bothered to interfere there.

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[…] to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research and reported by TDMS Research show that in North Carolina, there was a 5.8 point discrepancy in favor of Donald Trump, which […]

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[…] to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research and reported by TDMS Research show that in North Carolina, there was a 5.8 point discrepancy in favor of Donald Trump, which […]

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[…] to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research and reported by TDMS Research show that in North Carolina, there was a 5.8 point discrepancy in favor of Donald Trump, which […]

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[…] to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research and reported by TDMS Research show that in North Carolina, there was a 5.8 point discrepancy in favor of Donald Trump, which […]

Frances Lee
Guest

Thank you for your tireless efforts in your election work. It is clear that the 2016 election requires a full audit, and findings be used as a catalyst for change in how our elections are conducted. Clearly, hand counted paper ballots &/ or saving computerized ballot images is absolutely essential.

Desiree
Guest
Please Join Me in Demanding a Manual Recount of Bipartisan Selected Wisconsin Counties and an inspection of the Computer code used in Wisconsin to investigate a potential Russian hack that may have dramatically changed the result. This could be the tip of an iceberg that prevents the beginning of the end of Democracy as we know it! Why? 1.Polls in Wisconsin showed Hillary with a significant lead within one week or less of the election My calculated odds of the good polls being that far off are greater than 1 in 100 MILLION based on the largest Poll (Remington) and considering polling in adjacent states that was largely within the margin of error which demonstrates model correctness. A respected poll has never been that far off in modern polling history. http://www.electionprojection.com/latest-polls/wisconsin-presidential-polls.php 2.Voter turnout in Wisconsin was reported to be at 20 year lows yet Absentee Ballot voter turnout was 98% DOES THAT MAKE ANY SENSE? http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2016/11/09/wisconsin-voter-turnout-low/ 3.Exit Polls in many swing states INCLUDING WISCONSIN prior to post election weighting showed Clinton with a sizable lead My Calculated odds of Trump winning North Carolina were greater than 1 in ONE MILLION based on the exit polling. Analysis in other swing states… Read more »
brenda peters
Guest

Thank you for doing this. I am trying to get the word out ever since I found this. I knew something was off even though I cannot analyze it like you can. Thank you for the confirmation.

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[…] by election researcher Theodore de Macedo Soares, seen in the table below on this page as well as available at this link, compared to an ongoing tally of raw votes totals posted at this link by Dave Wasserman of Cook […]

Claire
Guest

Where is the petition. Journalists need to investigate this before January. We the people should be informed.

Claire
Guest

Where is the petition? Journalists need to know this. We the people need to know!

DANIEL S OLSON
Guest

How are you getting the CNN published exit poll numbers as total vote for each? I calculated Penn. to the same result you got by using the male and female totals added together, but I do not get the same result you got for Florida.

My math for Florida:
Clinton male (3997*0.47*0.43) +
Clinton female (3997*0.53*0.50) = 1866 votes and 46.71%
Trump 3997*0.47*0.52+3997*0.53*0.46 = 1951 votes and 48.82%

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[…] bommet målingene i de fleste statene betydelig, og ganske konsekvent til fordel for Clinton. (Dette skjedde også bl.a. i 2004, da disse målingene spådde seier til […]

janet
Guest

It seems to me that elections have been stolen since at least 2004 by flipping a few proprietary (non-auditable) voting machines in a few precincts in a few swing states. My question is: Why do Democrats allow it?

Karen Chimento
Guest

It appears imperative that for the integrity of the democratic process, vote recounts in highlighted states (at a minimum) are necessary. Does someone know of efforts in any of those states to bring legal action/injuction? If so, who would we contact in order to lend support, monetary and otherwise?

Dave
Guest

I personally think that California or some other state with verifiable vote counts should sue those states that do not and make the claim that those states cannot cast electoral college votes until the votes have been verified.

I also do not understand why the democratic party is not taking action.

Kirsten
Guest

What is the precedent for this kind of discrepancy? Has it happened in other elections? If not, then something definitely smells fishy.

Hanna
Guest
Want to share my experience at http://www.270towin.com/ election night. I was refreshing the site results (along and others) as tensions were growing after seeing that the election was not going as the polls had predicted. This was before Virginia was called. The website went down (404 error) for about a minute and then it came up with all the numbers drastically tweaked (to the absurd) and every state on the map was completely red. I hit refresh and it was the same and then after about 30 seconds of refreshing it went back to the previous results. FREAKED ME OUT and I emphatically told my buddies that I thought Russia had just hacked 270towin.com. We turned TV from what we were watching on pbs to msnbc just in time to see the guy struggling with the flat screen and they explained they would take a commercial break and fix, as they described it, their flatscreen’s connection issues. PBS seemed to be having tech issues as well accessing the data. But even if everything went as polls had predicted and Hillary had won, after seeing the site go down and numbers and map go crazy for Trump and then go back… Read more »
Mary Jo Risch
Guest

please put the American people’s mind to rest. We need a complete audit of voting in this election.

Dana
Guest

PENNSYLVANIA REGISTERED VOTERS: Please call your voter complaint hotline @ 877-868-3772 to notify your Secretary of the Commonwealth about Theodore’s work and the need for a recount.

Deadline is 11/23!!
Complaint form can also be submitted but doesn’t sound like that will do anything:
https://www.pavoterservices.state.pa.us/Pages/ReportElectionComplaints.aspx

Please share with your PA friends and family.

Thank you!! Dana

TAG
Guest

Can you explain how the EP data is ‘adjusted’ after the fact? Because these aren’t the numbers you see if you go to CNN now.

Dana
Guest

See note [1] in the table. Theodore also explains further in comments that the EP numbers you see now on CNN have been adjusted with the electronic vote counts that became available (which I assume would mask the problem).

Israel
Guest

Based on my calculations using the CNN reported exit poll data (http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president), your numbers for NC, PA, WI, & FL are bogus. Where did you come up with your numbers?

N.C.:
Exit Poll: Trump = 50.06% / Clinton = 45.56%
Actual Votes: Trump = 50.54% / Clinton = 46.7%

PA:
Exit Poll: Trump = 49.05% / Clinton = 47.95%
Actual Votes: Trump = 48.79% / Clinton = 47.65%

WI:
Exit Poll: Trump = 48.93% / Clinton = 46.63%
Actual Votes: Trump = 47.87% / Clinton = 46.94%

FL:
Exit Poll: Trump = 48.82% / Clinton = 46.71%
Actual Votes: Trump = 49.06% / Clinton = 47.79%

Dana
Guest

Hello Israel, See note [1] in the table. Theodore also explains further in comments that the EP numbers you see now on CNN have been adjusted with the electronic vote counts that became available (which I assume would mask the problem).

Israel
Guest

I can’t believe he is trying to pawn this off as legit. That explanation is completely ridiculous. Look at the time stamp on the .pdf files he linked to. Those are simply the early numbers that don’t represent the final exit poll tally. Do you think we are that dumb? You can easily verify this by viewing the other news outlets reporting of Edison Research’s exit poll numbers.

Israel
Guest

Look at his ‘data’ for Ohio for instance to see how his numbers are completely bogus…

He says the final exit poll data was 47.0 Clinton to 47.1 Trump.

In reality, using the REAL exit poll data from Edison research, it was 52.11 Trump and 42.89 Clinton. If we compare it to the total reported votes which were 52.05 Trump and 43.51 Clinton, it is crystal clear which numbers were correct.

If anything Clinton received some anomalous jumps compared to her exit poll numbers and still lost handily. Deal with it.

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[…] Theodore de Macedo Soares | 2016 Presidential Election Table | TDMS|Research […]

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[…] haven’t sorted out the Exit Polls yet, but the usual rumors abound–that the difference between the vote tally and exit polls are outside the margin of error in those four states.  Oh, and Clinton won only in counties in […]

James
Guest

ITS A DONE DEAL LIBTARDS! You can dream up all the fantasy charts you want! If I were you I’d be really busy packing instead of this nonsense!

Norm
Guest

I don’t have any political interest, but the screenshots of exit polls before the final ‘post count’ exit polls were released – that you find on CNN and elsewhere, tell a different story to the one that many have been led to believe. This is why the percentages shown in Theodore’s charts are not those that are now reported. (Yes, incredible as it may seem, Edison adjusted the exit polls to match the counts.)

Israel
Guest
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[…] calls were fueled in large part by the observation of some election data analysts that the reported results in those states were markedly different […]

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[…] November 14, 2016: As requested by a few people attached is the zip file (very large at 5,300KB) containing all the exit polls downloaded from CNN shortly after the polls closed in each state. If using these files please credit http://www.tdmsresearch.com  and Theodore de Macedo Soares as the source and most importantly cite the article that shows the results of the exit polls: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/ […]

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[…] from senior intelligence officials that Russia had sought ways to influence our election. Analysis of election results by TDMS Research has shown that the discrepancy between exit polls and official vote count favored Trump in 23 […]

John Kesich
Guest

How much might it cost to have proper, people funded exit polls? And is there an organization which might be willing to organize them?

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[…] 2016 Presidential Election Table by Theodore de Macedo Soares for TDMS|Reseasrch.  [Added 11/29/2016]   This shows the discrepancy between exit polls and official votes in 28 states.  In 12 states, Trump’s margin of victory was greater than the margin of error in the exit poll; in four states—North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida—the exit poll favored Clinton and the official vote favored Trump.  In one state, New York, Clinton’s margin of victory was greater than the margin for error in the exit poll. […]

Chris Bystroff
Guest
I wrote this op-ed for the New York Times. The odds are it will not get in, because they get lots of unsolicited op-eds. So, I’ll post it here, since you are the poll watchers. ————– Trump said our election system is rigged. Now, like a troubled teen, he lashes out against recounts in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, whose results may prove the ironic truth of his unsupported (and no longer self-serving) claim. What happened? Perhaps he saw the data I saw. Perhaps that is what scared him. I read the analysis of poll-watcher Theodore de Macedo Soares, who found that exit polls showed that Clinton won the election in four battleground states (FL, NC, PA and WI) while the official computer count gave them all to Trump. In fact, 22 out of 28 states shifted in favor of Trump, 13 of them by more than the 95% confidence limits of the poll. On average, we should see only 1 in 20 shifts that exceed that limit, not 13 in 28. Were the exit polls a 145,860,530-to-1 statistical aberration? I wouldn’t bet on it any more than I would bet my house on a lottery ticket. Don’t get me wrong. I… Read more »
dramapad
Guest

Excellent! I hope you get this piece published somewhere. The more credible, thoughtful voices such as yours are heard in public, the sooner we can address widespread violations of election integrity in the United States.

Scott
Guest

She cheated, and if Trymp did win by election fraud (I don’t think he did, I think the exit pillars were lying to the pollsters) then she got beat at her own game! This country is way better off without another Clinton in politics!

Lindsay Vurek
Guest

If one compares the 11-17-2016 updated vote count,and the Exit Polls at the close of polls on 11-8-2016 (all shown in this sites table) some interesting data emerges :
Exit Poll prediction vs Vote Count in California show 0.0% difference, and in Texas there is only a 0.3% difference, as of November 17, 2016. These are large diverse states and yet the Exit Polls are near perfect predictors of the vote count, which is a substantial deductive proof that Edison Research has the sampling science down to a high degree of accuracy.

Yet, when the exit polls show significant, beyond the statistical margin-of-error, differences in the vote count in the swing states, the exit polls are ignored and not spoken of as pointing to possible vote count manipulation?

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[…] Now NEP reporters maintain a fiction that American elections are “always fair.” With widespread Republican suppression of nonwhite, poor, and elderly voters in many states, this fiction is, on the face of it, bizarre. On behalf of the American people, the news media could have demanded fairness. Instead, in the 2016 presidential election, NEP corporations—excepting CNN—ceased to report Edison’s initial exit polls at all, even though Edison conducted such polls in 28 states (Theodore de Macedo Soares, co-author of the Election Justice report on the Democratic primaries, recorded these numbers). […]

Phoebe
Guest

Thank you for doing this work! I have one question on your calculations of the 95% confidence interval margins of error. I was trying to see how you calculated the 3.8% MOE of the difference for the Pennsylvania exit polls, using Charles Franklin’s paper that you attached, but I keep getting 7.108%. I’m using the equation for the MOE for difference in a single question, where p1 = 0.505, p2 = 0.461, n=2935, the critical t value as 1.96, and I’ve been multiplying the final answer by 2. What am I missing?

Phoebe
Guest

Also do you happen to have the raw numbers for the exit poll data? i.e. a more precise figure than 50.5%?

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[…] after the alleged victory of Donald Trump, Theodore de Macedo Soares posted a stunning chart on his electoral integrity blog, TDMS|Research. After downloading, crunching, and […]

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[…] Table credit: TDMSResearch […]

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[…] to the 2016 exit polls, Clinton was expected to win the battleground states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, […]

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[…] to the 2016 exit polls, Clinton was expected to win the battleground states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, […]

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[…] to the 2016 exit polls, Clinton was expected to win the battleground states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, […]

Patrick
Guest

Election should be voided.

Norah
Guest

Yes thank you for this. I knew it, but ….why should we allow this cheating pig to stay in the WH? Forget impeachment…..he needs to be thrown out on his butt along with the scum that helped him. I hope people will march over this and not claim it’s “fake news”. I’m so sick of them getting away with this. It has to stop!

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[…] for president in 1988 and Democrats in 2016 won a series of down ballot offices. According to exit polls conducted by Edison Research, Clinton won four swing states (NC, PA, WI, and FL) that she went on […]

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[…] for president in 1988 and Democrats in 2016 won a series of down ballot offices. According to exit polls conducted by Edison Research, Clinton won four swing states (NC, PA, WI, and FL) that she went on […]

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[…] for president in 1988 and Democrats in 2016 won a series of down ballot offices. According to exit polls conducted by Edison Research, Clinton won four swing states (NC, PA, WI, and FL) that she went on […]

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