2016 Presidential Election Table

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by Theodore de Macedo Soares According to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research, Clinton won four key battleground states (NC, PA, WI, and FL) in the 2016 Presidential Election that she went on to lose in the computerized vote counts.  With these states Clinton wins the Electoral College with a count of 306 versus 232 for Trump. Clinton also won the national exit poll by 3.2% and holds a narrow lead in the national vote count still in Continue Reading →

Public Records Laws – US States

By Theodore de Macedo Soares First draft that will soon be updated with links to the Public Records Law (PRL) of each US state and how they apply to access to election ballots by the public.  These laws, similar to the federal Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) are known by varying names according to each state. For example: in New York, they are called Freedom of Information Law (FOIL), in Wisconsin and Florida they are called Public Records Law, Continue Reading →

Wisconsin: Hand Count of Ballots is Public Records Law

by Theodore de Macedo Soares Wisconsin’s Public Records Law grants the right to visually inspect and hand count ballots.  As an important aside Florida’s Public Records Law, for example, does so as well and before an election is certified and before the expiration of the period for a recount (see NASS survey link below). In Wisconsin the ballots are accessible under the Public Records Law only after the period for a recount. This exception, however, may only be a Continue Reading →

2016 US State Governor Elections

By Theodore de Macedo Soares Edison Research conducted exit polls in seven of the 12 states holding elections for state governor in 2016.  In two of these states, Missouri and New Hampshire, the exit polls projected the winner to be the Democratic Party candidate but the computerized vote counts declared the Republican Party candidate the winner.  The contest in North Carolina is still undecided. The discrepancies between the exit polls and the computer based vote totals favored the Republican Continue Reading →

2016 US Senate Elections

by Theodore de Macedo Soares According to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research, the Democratic Party Senate candidates won three Senate seats that went to the Republican candidate in the computerized vote counts. With these additional seats, the Democratic Party would have regained control of the Senate—51 seats to 48 for the Republican Party and one Independent (caucuses with the Democratic Party). Edison Research conducted exit polls in only 28 states in the 2016 general elections.  Senate seats Continue Reading →

Exit Polls and Computerized Vote Counts

By Theodore de Macedo Soares. This article is part of the larger report Democracy Lost: A Report on the Fatally Flawed 2016 Democratic Primaries by Election Justice USA. The computerized vote counts in the 2016 Democratic Party Presidential primaries have, in many states, differed widely from the vote totals predicted by the exit polls conducted by Edison Research. These discrepancies were overwhelmingly to Clinton’s benefit.  The vote counts for the Republican Party Presidential primaries; however, with the exception of Continue Reading →

Youthful Voters not the Cause of Discrepancies between Exit Polls and Computer Counts

By Theodore de Macedo Soares. This article is part of the exit poll section included in the report Democracy Lost: A Report on the Fatally Flawed 2016 Democratic Primaries. by Election Justice USA.  Statistical details will soon be included. Nate Cohn, a writer for the New York Times, recently wrote an article theorizing that the reason “why…exit polls so tilted toward Mr. Sanders,” was due to the fact that “young voters are far likelier to complete the exit polls Continue Reading →

Republican Party Detailed Tables. TSE of the 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. The following tables compare exit poll results with the unverified computer vote counts for all the primary states for the exception of New Hampshire and South Carolina.* The comparison of 106 individual exit polls results for the main candidates in the Republican Party primaries (Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, Carson, and Bush) with their actual vote totals allow for the calculation of the total survey error (TSE).  As the completed exit polls are compared to Continue Reading →

Democratic Party Table 1. 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Democratic Party 2016 primaries. This table, Democratic Party Table 1, compares the results of candidate Clinton and candidate Sanders applying the standard margin of error calculations. Table show the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts.  Discrepancies that exceed the margin of error (MOE) of the exit polls are shown in the last column. The MOE applied is the standard formula used when the news media and others report survey Continue Reading →

Republican Party Table 1. 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Republican Party 2016 primaries. This table, Republican Party Table 1, compares candidate Trump’s results with the combined results of the competing candidates applying the standard margin of error calculations. Table show the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts.  Discrepancies that exceed the margin of error (MOE) of the exit polls are shown in the last column. The MOE applied is the standard formula used when the news media and Continue Reading →

Republican Party Table 2. 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Republican Party 2016 primaries. This table, Republican Party Table 2, shows the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts applying total survey error (TSE) calculations. Discrepancies that exceed the total survey error of the exit polls are shown in the last column. Compared to Table 1, applying TSE instead of the standard MOE results in decreasing the discrepancies by which the states exceed error calculations. Additionally, the discrepancy in Ohio, Continue Reading →

Democratic Party Table 2. 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Democratic Party 2016 primaries. This table, Democratic Party Table 2, shows the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts. The margin of error applied represents the total survey error (TSE) calculated for the 2016 primaries. Discrepancies that exceed the total survey error of the exit polls are shown in the last column. Compared to Table 1, applying TSE instead of the standard MOE results in decreasing the discrepancies by which Continue Reading →

Exit Polls versus Reported Vote Counts. 2016 Presidential Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. In the United States, computerized election vote counts are essentially unverified [1].  Computer counts are non-transparent and non-observable by ordinary citizens.  For these reasons, and in order to prevent hard-to-detect computer vote fraud, the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany (their version of the US Supreme Court) in 2009, effectively banned the use of computers to count Germany’s ballots [2]. In order to be able to verify the results of their elections, Germany reverted to Continue Reading →

The Suspect Massachusetts 2016 Primary

Vote count matches Republican Party exit polls but not the Democratic Party exit polls. by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Article first published in OpEdNews.com on March 10, 2016. In the Massachusetts March 1, 2016 primary Democratic Party race,  the computerized vote count declared candidate Clinton the winner but the exit polls indicated candidate Sanders to be the winner by a margin of 6.6%.  These same exit polls accurately predicted the results of each and all of the Republican candidates.  Continue Reading →