Exit Polls and Computerized Vote Counts

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By Theodore de Macedo Soares. This article is part of the larger report Democracy Lost: A Report on the Fatally Flawed 2016 Democratic Primaries by Election Justice USA. The computerized vote counts in the 2016 Democratic Party Presidential primaries have, in many states, differed widely from the vote totals predicted by the exit polls conducted by Edison Research. These discrepancies were overwhelmingly to Clinton’s benefit.  The vote counts for the Republican Party Presidential primaries; however, with the exception of Continue Reading →

Youthful Voters not the Cause of Discrepancies between Exit Polls and Computer Counts

By Theodore de Macedo Soares. This article is part of the exit poll section included in the report Democracy Lost: A Report on the Fatally Flawed 2016 Democratic Primaries. by Election Justice USA.  Statistical details will soon be included. Nate Cohn, a writer for the New York Times, recently wrote an article theorizing that the reason “why…exit polls so tilted toward Mr. Sanders,” was due to the fact that “young voters are far likelier to complete the exit polls Continue Reading →

Republican Party Detailed Tables. TSE of the 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. The following tables compare exit poll results with the unverified computer vote counts for all the primary states for the exception of New Hampshire and South Carolina.* The comparison of 106 individual exit polls results for the main candidates in the Republican Party primaries (Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, Carson, and Bush) with their actual vote totals allow for the calculation of the total survey error (TSE).  As the completed exit polls are compared to Continue Reading →

Democratic Party Table 1. 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Democratic Party 2016 primaries. This table, Democratic Party Table 1, compares the results of candidate Clinton and candidate Sanders applying the standard margin of error calculations. Table show the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts.  Discrepancies that exceed the margin of error (MOE) of the exit polls are shown in the last column. The MOE applied is the standard formula used when the news media and others report survey Continue Reading →

Republican Party Table 1. 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Republican Party 2016 primaries. This table, Republican Party Table 1, compares candidate Trump’s results with the combined results of the competing candidates applying the standard margin of error calculations. Table show the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts.  Discrepancies that exceed the margin of error (MOE) of the exit polls are shown in the last column. The MOE applied is the standard formula used when the news media and Continue Reading →

Republican Party Table 2. 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Republican Party 2016 primaries. This table, Republican Party Table 2, shows the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts applying total survey error (TSE) calculations. Discrepancies that exceed the total survey error of the exit polls are shown in the last column. Compared to Table 1, applying TSE instead of the standard MOE results in decreasing the discrepancies by which the states exceed error calculations. Additionally, the discrepancy in Ohio, Continue Reading →

Democratic Party Table 2. 2016 Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Democratic Party 2016 primaries. This table, Democratic Party Table 2, shows the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts. The margin of error applied represents the total survey error (TSE) calculated for the 2016 primaries. Discrepancies that exceed the total survey error of the exit polls are shown in the last column. Compared to Table 1, applying TSE instead of the standard MOE results in decreasing the discrepancies by which Continue Reading →

Exit Polls versus Reported Vote Counts. 2016 Presidential Primaries

by Theodore de Macedo Soares. In the United States, computerized election vote counts are essentially unverified [1].  Computer counts are non-transparent and non-observable by ordinary citizens.  For these reasons, and in order to prevent hard-to-detect computer vote fraud, the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany (their version of the US Supreme Court) in 2009, effectively banned the use of computers to count Germany’s ballots [2]. In order to be able to verify the results of their elections, Germany reverted to Continue Reading →

The Suspect Massachusetts 2016 Primary

Vote count matches Republican Party exit polls but not the Democratic Party exit polls. by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Article first published in OpEdNews.com on March 10, 2016. In the Massachusetts March 1, 2016 primary Democratic Party race,  the computerized vote count declared candidate Clinton the winner but the exit polls indicated candidate Sanders to be the winner by a margin of 6.6%.  These same exit polls accurately predicted the results of each and all of the Republican candidates.  Continue Reading →