Most Countries Hand-Count Paper Ballots

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The United States remains one of the few major democracies in the world that continue to allow computerized vote counting—not observable by the public—to determine the results of its elections [1]. Countries such as Germany [2] Norway [3], Netherlands [4], France [5, 6],  Canada [7] , Denmark [8, 9], Italy [10], United Kingdom [11], Ireland [11], Spain [11], Portugal [11], Sweden [11], Finland [11], and most other countries [11], protect the integrity and trust of their elections with publicly Continue Reading →

2022 U.S. Senate Midterm Elections

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Exit polls in the battle ground states and pre-election polls for the 2022 elections projected the Republican Party to win control of the U.S. Senate. The computerized vote counts reversed these projections with the Democratic Party maintaining control of the Senate. Most countries, unlike the United States, do not allow computers to count their ballots—all ballots must be hand-counted and the process observable. (See highlighted section below). As in past elections, as noted in this website, the discrepancies between Continue Reading →

2020 U.S. SENATE ELECTIONS

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Exit Polls and Pre-Election Polls Versus Computer Counts By Theodore de Macedo Soares Exit polls and pre-election polls projected the Democratic Party to gain control of the Senate on election day 2020. The computerized vote counts have the Republican Party with a two seat advantage. Like the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections and the 2016 U.S. Senate elections the 2020 US Senate races show almost all discrepancies, between the exit polls and the unverified computer counts, favored the Republican Continue Reading →

2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TABLE

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Exit Polls Versus Reported Vote Counts By Theodore de Macedo Soares According to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research, Biden easily won the presidency.  As in past elections, the pattern of overwhelming discrepancies between the exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts, always favoring the more politically conservative candidate, continues in this election. Incorporating the exit poll results in the New York Times interactive Electoral College map, Biden wins the presidency with a count of 328 Continue Reading →

MICHIGAN 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARY

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Exit Poll Versus Reported Vote Count By Theodore de Macedo Soares  Election results from the computerized vote counts of the 2020 Michigan Democratic Party presidential primary differed significantly from the results projected by the exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN at poll’s closing. The large discrepancies greatly exceeded the margin of error for the exit poll projected differences between candidates. In this election candidate Sanders underperformed his exit poll projected proportions by 15.4%. Sanders consequently Continue Reading →

CALIFORNIA 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARY

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Exit Poll Versus Reported Vote Count By Theodore de Macedo Soares Election results from the computerized vote counts of the 2020 California Democratic Party presidential primary differed significantly from the results projected by the exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN at poll’s closing. According to the exit poll Sanders won big in CA (by 15%). The unobservable computer counts cut his lead by half (to 7.3%). In the total delegate count to date, substituting the Continue Reading →

MASSACHUSETTS 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARY Exit Poll Versus Reported Vote Count

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Table updated with latest vote counts on March 8, 2020. Text edited accordingly and for clarity. By Theodore de Macedo Soares The 2020 Massachusetts Democratic Party presidential primary was held on March 3, 2020. Election results from the computerized vote counts differed significantly from the results projected by the exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN at poll’s closing. As in the 2016 Massachusetts primary between candidates Sanders and Clinton, disparities greatly exceed the exit poll’s Continue Reading →

Democratic Party Table 1. 2016 Primaries

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by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Democratic Party 2016 primaries. This table, Democratic Party Table 1, compares the results of candidate Clinton and candidate Sanders applying the standard margin of error calculations. Table show the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts.  Discrepancies that exceed the margin of error (MOE) of the exit polls are shown in the last column. The MOE applied is the standard formula used when the news media and others report survey Continue Reading →

Republican Party Table 1. 2016 Primaries

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by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Republican Party 2016 primaries. This table, Republican Party Table 1, compares candidate Trump’s results with the combined results of the competing candidates applying the standard margin of error calculations. Table show the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts.  Discrepancies that exceed the margin of error (MOE) of the exit polls are shown in the last column. The MOE applied is the standard formula used when the news media and Continue Reading →

MISSOURI 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARY

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Exit Poll Versus Reported Vote Count By Theodore de Macedo Soares As in 11 of the 17 state primaries elections prior to March 17, the discrepancies between exit polls projections and the results of the unobservable computer vote counts in the 2020 Missouri Democratic Party presidential primary is large and beyond the margin of error associated with the exit poll.  Like the 2016 Democratic Party primaries, with candidates Clinton and Sanders, all but one of these large discrepancies favors Continue Reading →

VERMONT 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARY

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Exit Poll Versus Reported Vote Count By Theodore de Macedo Soares The 2020 Vermont Democratic Party presidential primary was held on March 3, 2020. Election results from the computerized vote counts differed significantly from the results projected by the exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN at poll’s closing. In candidate Sanders’ home state, the combined disparities between the exit poll and the vote count for candidates Sanders and Biden at 10.8% exhibited the largest disparity Continue Reading →

TEXAS 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARY

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Exit Poll Versus Reported Vote Count By Theodore de Macedo Soares The 2020 Texas Democratic Party presidential primary was held on March 3, 2020. Election results from the computerized vote counts differed significantly from the results projected by the exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN at poll’s closing. According to the exit poll Sanders was tied with Biden but lost in the unobservable computer counts by 4.5%. In this election candidate Sanders saw the largest Continue Reading →

SOUTH CAROLINA 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARY Exit Poll Versus Reported Vote Count

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By Theodore de Macedo Soares The 2020 South Carolina Democratic Party presidential primary was held on February 29, 2020. Election results from the computerized vote counts differed significantly from the results projected by the exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN at poll’s closing. The disparities exceed the exit poll’s margin of error. Of all presidential candidates, Biden’s vote count exhibited the largest disparity from his exit poll projection. His unverified computer-generated vote totals represented a Continue Reading →

NEW HAMPSHIRE 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARY Exit Poll Versus Reported Vote Count

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By Theodore de Macedo Soares The recent New Hampshire Democratic Party Primary computerized vote count results differ significantly from the results projected by the exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN at poll’s closing. The disparities exceed the exit poll’s margin of error. Of all presidential candidates Buttigieg’s vote count exhibited the largest disparity from his exit poll projection. His unverified computer-generated vote totals represented a 12% increase of his projected exit poll share. Exit polls Continue Reading →

2016 US State Governor Elections

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By Theodore de Macedo Soares Edison Research conducted exit polls in seven of the 12 states holding elections for state governor in 2016.  In two of these states, Missouri and New Hampshire, the exit polls projected the winner to be the Democratic Party candidate but the computerized vote counts declared the Republican Party candidate the winner.  The contest in North Carolina is still undecided. The discrepancies between the exit polls and the computer based vote totals favored the Republican Continue Reading →

2016 US Senate Elections

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by Theodore de Macedo Soares According to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research, the Democratic Party Senate candidates won three Senate seats that went to the Republican candidate in the computerized vote counts. With these additional seats, the Democratic Party would have regained control of the Senate—51 seats to 48 for the Republican Party and one Independent (caucuses with the Democratic Party). Edison Research conducted exit polls in only 28 states in the 2016 general elections.  Senate seats Continue Reading →

2016 Presidential Election Table

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by Theodore de Macedo Soares According to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research, Clinton won four key battleground states (NC, PA, WI, and FL) in the 2016 Presidential Election that she went on to lose in the computerized vote counts.  With these states Clinton wins the Electoral College with a count of 306 versus 232 for Trump. Clinton also won the national exit poll by 3.2% and won the national vote count by 2.1% or about three million Continue Reading →

Exit Polls and Computerized Vote Counts

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By Theodore de Macedo Soares. This article is part of the larger report by Election Justice USA. The computerized vote counts in the 2016 Democratic Party Presidential primaries have, in many states, differed widely from the vote totals predicted by the exit polls conducted by Edison Research. These discrepancies were overwhelmingly to Clinton’s benefit.  The vote counts for the Republican Party Presidential primaries; however, with the exception of the primaries in two states, West Virginia and Texas, with very Continue Reading →

Youthful Voters not the Cause of Discrepancies between Exit Polls and Computer Counts

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By Theodore de Macedo Soares. This article is part of the exit poll section included in the report . by Election Justice USA.  Statistical details will soon be included. Nate Cohn, a writer for the New York Times, recently wrote an article theorizing that the reason “why…exit polls so tilted toward Mr. Sanders,” was due to the fact that “young voters are far likelier to complete the exit polls than older voters.” Although he acknowledged that Edison Research corrects Continue Reading →

Republican Party Detailed Tables. TSE of the 2016 Primaries

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by Theodore de Macedo Soares. The following tables compare exit poll results with the unverified computer vote counts for all the primary states for the exception of New Hampshire and South Carolina.* The comparison of 106 individual exit polls results for the main candidates in the Republican Party primaries (Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, Carson, and Bush) with their actual vote totals allow for the calculation of the total survey error (TSE).  As the completed exit polls are compared to Continue Reading →

Republican Party Table 2. 2016 Primaries

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by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Republican Party 2016 primaries. This table, Republican Party Table 2, shows the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts applying total survey error (TSE) calculations. Discrepancies that exceed the total survey error of the exit polls are shown in the last column. Compared to Table 1, applying TSE instead of the standard MOE results in decreasing the discrepancies by which the states exceed error calculations. Additionally, the discrepancy in Ohio, Continue Reading →

Democratic Party Table 2. 2016 Primaries

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by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Democratic Party 2016 primaries. This table, Democratic Party Table 2, shows the discrepancies between exit poll results and the unverified computer vote counts. The margin of error applied represents the total survey error (TSE) calculated for the 2016 primaries. Discrepancies that exceed the total survey error of the exit polls are shown in the last column. Compared to Table 1, applying TSE instead of the standard MOE results in decreasing the discrepancies by which Continue Reading →

Exit Polls versus Reported Vote Counts. 2016 Presidential Primaries

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by Theodore de Macedo Soares. In the United States, computerized election vote counts are essentially unverified [1].  Computer counts are non-transparent and non-observable by ordinary citizens.  For these reasons, and in order to prevent hard-to-detect computer vote fraud, the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany (their version of the US Supreme Court) in 2009, effectively banned the use of computers to count Germany’s ballots [2]. In order to be able to verify the results of their elections, Germany reverted to Continue Reading →

The Suspect Massachusetts 2016 Primary

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Vote count matches Republican Party exit polls but not the Democratic Party exit polls. by Theodore de Macedo Soares. Article first published in OpEdNews.com on March 10, 2016. In the Massachusetts March 1, 2016 primary Democratic Party race,  the computerized vote count declared candidate Clinton the winner but the exit polls indicated candidate Sanders to be the winner by a margin of 6.6%.  These same exit polls accurately predicted the results of each and all of the Republican candidates.  Continue Reading →